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The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing

Schmitt, Thomas ; Rodemann, Tobias ; Adamy, Jürgen (2021)
The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing.
In: Energies, 2021, 14 (9)
doi: 10.26083/tuprints-00019312
Article, Secondary publication, Publisher's Version

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Item Type: Article
Type of entry: Secondary publication
Title: The Cost of Photovoltaic Forecasting Errors in Microgrid Control with Peak Pricing
Language: English
Date: 20 August 2021
Place of Publication: Darmstadt
Year of primary publication: 2021
Publisher: MDPI
Journal or Publication Title: Energies
Volume of the journal: 14
Issue Number: 9
Collation: 13 Seiten
DOI: 10.26083/tuprints-00019312
Corresponding Links:
Origin: Secondary publication service

Model predictive control (MPC) is widely used for microgrids or unit commitment due to its ability to respect the forecasts of loads and generation of renewable energies. However, while there are lots of approaches to accounting for uncertainties in these forecasts, their impact is rarely analyzed systematically. Here, we use a simplified linear state space model of a commercial building including a photovoltaic (PV) plant and real-world data from a 30 day period in 2020. PV predictions are derived from weather forecasts and industry peak pricing is assumed. The effect of prediction accuracy on the resulting cost is evaluated by multiple simulations with different prediction errors and initial conditions. Analysis shows a mainly linear correlation, while the exact shape depends on the treatment of predictions at the current time step. Furthermore, despite a time horizon of 24h, only the prediction accuracy of the first 75min was relevant for the presented setting.

Status: Publisher's Version
URN: urn:nbn:de:tuda-tuprints-193128
Classification DDC: 600 Technology, medicine, applied sciences > 620 Engineering and machine engineering
Divisions: 18 Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology > Institut für Automatisierungstechnik und Mechatronik > Control Methods and Robotics (from 01.08.2022 renamed Control Methods and Intelligent Systems)
Date Deposited: 20 Aug 2021 12:03
Last Modified: 14 Nov 2023 19:03
URI: https://tuprints.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/id/eprint/19312
PPN: 480288062
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