Modeling Water Availability during a Blackout under Consideration of Uncertain Demand Response

Water distribution systems (WDSs) need electric power supply to operate their pumps. Long-lasting power outages (blackouts) can disrupt the availability of water for citizens. If the water supply is limited by constrained pumping capacities caused by the blackout, water demand reduction could help preserve this limited supply, while increased water withdrawal, i.e., stockpiling, could deplete it. This study investigates the effects and subsequent uncertainty of demand response, especially stockpiling, on WDSs in a blackout. Therefore, we (i) model residential water demand reduction, regular water demand, and water stockpiling in a blackout, (ii) simulate the effect of the demand response on the WDS of Darmstadt, Germany, and (iii) investigate uncertainty resulting from the demand response and initial states of the WDS at time of the onset of the blackout. The findings indicate that the demand response and initial tank levels are the main sources of uncertainty and that demand-side management bears the potential to improve water service availability during a blackout.